Coming November 2010 . . .
Due to popular demand, TrustinSam.com will return for the 2010-11 college basketball season. Two seasons ago, we won at an amazing 62 percent clip and netted over 60 units of profit. And nobody will ever forget the game of the year winner on Niagara over Drexel in the closing seconds. The entire Southside of Chicago was on board for that payday. Using my knowledge of the college game -- especially the Big Ten conference -- and the information that'll come our way, I look forward to taking care of business yet again this year. The Maui Invitational is closer than you think.
Posted on 31 Aug 2010 by Sam
Saturday, April 3
**Final Four pick originally published April 3, 2010 for Pregame.com
*GAME OF THE WEEK* Triple-star bet
819 MICHST +2 vs 820 BUTLER - PUSH
Let me first start out by saying that I am a HUGE fan of the Butler Bulldogs. I've been following them very closely ever since yours truly participated in a high school camp at the Horizon League powerhouse back in the Todd Lickliter days. I played with Matt Howard and Shawn Vanzant and would love nothing more than to see the Dawgs playing for a National Championship on Monday night. However, I have to be a realist here and end this terrific story. Believe me when I say it's just not Butler's time -- their best basketball is still ahead of them.
Call me a Big Ten homer if you must, but every angle I take and every way I play this game out, I have Michigan State winning this ball game and advancing to Monday night. Outside of being the toughest and best rebounding team, the Spartans are tournament tested and have the best coach in college basketball on their sideline in Tom Izzo. This bunch did a lot of growing up in the NCAAs last season and while Goran Suton and Travis Walton (and Kalin Lucas) aren't walking through the door tonight, players like Durrell Summers, Chris Allen and Draymond Green -- more on him in a little bit -- all proved against Connecticut that they are elite level players and that they can make big plays in crunch time on the national stage.
I always say that in March Madness it's not about picking the best team, it's about breaking down the matchups and deciphering which team holds the ultimate edge. You all know I'm giving the coaching edge to Sparty, but matchup wise, I really feel Michigan State has so much more to offer because of how well-rounded they are across the board. Ronald Nored and Willie Veasley are tremendous defenders and many point to their lockdown defense against Syracuse and Kansas State, however, let me remind you that those offenses were not only guard-oriented, but instead of attacking the flimsier Butler frontcourt and taking the ball to the basket, Cuse and K-State opted to yack way too many three balls. The key to beating Butler is winning the battle of the boards and pounding the ball on the low block, and neither of their previous two opponents were able to accomplish that.
Sparty is known for its tough defense and they outrebound their opponents by 8.6 boards per game. Delvon Roe, Raymar Morgan, Draymond Green and Derrick Nix all have superior height and strength advantages in their respective matchups and I expect MSU to use their big bodies and brute force in the paint to control the glass on both sides of the floor. Lucious and Summers are going to have their hands full with the stingy Butler guards, but which ever team brings more Windex to the party is going to stand tall at the end of the day.
In a game that will likely feature a very slow tempo, defensive tenacity and ball rotation will be key. Michigan State boasts what I believe is the best HELP defense in all of college basketball. They split the floor right down the middle, converge to the ball with double teams and do a great job of staying planted on the floor with their hands up. They are so disciplined at drawing charges and do that so much more often than commit blocking fouls. And call me crazy, but I just cannot fathom that a team that dons football helmets and shoulder pads for "war rebounding drills" is going to lose a trench war. It would be much different if Butler were a transitional team that wanted to get out in the open court, but the Bulldogs essentially play a similar style of basketball. Advantage: Sparty.
Offensively, I've got some intel from State's final walkthrough that says Izzo plans to throw quite a bit of different looks at the Butler defense. I've talked all week long about how Butler has to prepare for Michigan State's preparation and this will be a very interesting chess match for both parties. Word has it that Izzo has developed a "six-pack attack" featuring power forward Draymond Green running the point. We saw bits of pieces of Green running the offense against Northern Iowa and Tennessee and let me remind you that he was the one that fired the tight one-handed pass to Morgan in the closing seconds against the Vols that set up the winning free throws. A team captain, Green is a very smart player that plays within his means. And like his teammates, he'll pass up his own shot in order to give somebody else a better look. Be on the lookout for the pick-and-pop game and pindowns for Raymar Morgan with Green on the point.
Speaking of Morgan, I know that Tom Izzo knows that Morgan is an absolute luxury. After all, it was No. 2 that closed out Michigan State wins with an up-and-under move on UNI's Lucas O'Rear and the winning free throws against Tennessee. Morgan matches up against the tough Veasley, although the Spartan senior does have five inches on his opponent. This must be taken into consideration down the stretch and I trust Izzo more than any coach in the final two minutes of a ball game. He's not afraid to take a risk and more times than not, he'll come out on top in close games.
As far as Kalin Lucas being out, I'm confident in Korie Lucious and feel that he's grown a lot in the past two rounds. Don't forget, Lucious hit two big three-pointers in the Final Four last season that propelled MSU to the title game. Michigan State was ranked #2 in the preseason poll and their ability to rotate interchangeable parts is a direct correlation of those high expectations. Players step in, step up and make plays. Butler's appearance in Indianapolis is great for the game of basketball, but this team just isn't ready yet. Wait til guys like Hayward, Mack and Nored are juniors in 2010-11. They'll be back. Quick note, the last eight programs playing in their first Final Four are 1-7 (only win was George Mason in 2006).
Michigan State has been reminded all season long of their embarrassing title game loss last year at the hands of North Carolina and you cannot underestimate their added motivation to get back to Monday night. They were the underdog at the EXACT same time last season against UConn yet they'll bring the EXACT same tough, physical approach that goes hand-in-hand with the city of Detroit. Sparty is most dangerous when everybody counts them out, so go ahead, keep doubting them -- they'll only bark louder and bark harder.
*GAME OF THE WEEK* Triple-star bet
819 MICHST +2 vs 820 BUTLER - PUSH
Let me first start out by saying that I am a HUGE fan of the Butler Bulldogs. I've been following them very closely ever since yours truly participated in a high school camp at the Horizon League powerhouse back in the Todd Lickliter days. I played with Matt Howard and Shawn Vanzant and would love nothing more than to see the Dawgs playing for a National Championship on Monday night. However, I have to be a realist here and end this terrific story. Believe me when I say it's just not Butler's time -- their best basketball is still ahead of them.
Call me a Big Ten homer if you must, but every angle I take and every way I play this game out, I have Michigan State winning this ball game and advancing to Monday night. Outside of being the toughest and best rebounding team, the Spartans are tournament tested and have the best coach in college basketball on their sideline in Tom Izzo. This bunch did a lot of growing up in the NCAAs last season and while Goran Suton and Travis Walton (and Kalin Lucas) aren't walking through the door tonight, players like Durrell Summers, Chris Allen and Draymond Green -- more on him in a little bit -- all proved against Connecticut that they are elite level players and that they can make big plays in crunch time on the national stage.
I always say that in March Madness it's not about picking the best team, it's about breaking down the matchups and deciphering which team holds the ultimate edge. You all know I'm giving the coaching edge to Sparty, but matchup wise, I really feel Michigan State has so much more to offer because of how well-rounded they are across the board. Ronald Nored and Willie Veasley are tremendous defenders and many point to their lockdown defense against Syracuse and Kansas State, however, let me remind you that those offenses were not only guard-oriented, but instead of attacking the flimsier Butler frontcourt and taking the ball to the basket, Cuse and K-State opted to yack way too many three balls. The key to beating Butler is winning the battle of the boards and pounding the ball on the low block, and neither of their previous two opponents were able to accomplish that.
Sparty is known for its tough defense and they outrebound their opponents by 8.6 boards per game. Delvon Roe, Raymar Morgan, Draymond Green and Derrick Nix all have superior height and strength advantages in their respective matchups and I expect MSU to use their big bodies and brute force in the paint to control the glass on both sides of the floor. Lucious and Summers are going to have their hands full with the stingy Butler guards, but which ever team brings more Windex to the party is going to stand tall at the end of the day.
In a game that will likely feature a very slow tempo, defensive tenacity and ball rotation will be key. Michigan State boasts what I believe is the best HELP defense in all of college basketball. They split the floor right down the middle, converge to the ball with double teams and do a great job of staying planted on the floor with their hands up. They are so disciplined at drawing charges and do that so much more often than commit blocking fouls. And call me crazy, but I just cannot fathom that a team that dons football helmets and shoulder pads for "war rebounding drills" is going to lose a trench war. It would be much different if Butler were a transitional team that wanted to get out in the open court, but the Bulldogs essentially play a similar style of basketball. Advantage: Sparty.
Offensively, I've got some intel from State's final walkthrough that says Izzo plans to throw quite a bit of different looks at the Butler defense. I've talked all week long about how Butler has to prepare for Michigan State's preparation and this will be a very interesting chess match for both parties. Word has it that Izzo has developed a "six-pack attack" featuring power forward Draymond Green running the point. We saw bits of pieces of Green running the offense against Northern Iowa and Tennessee and let me remind you that he was the one that fired the tight one-handed pass to Morgan in the closing seconds against the Vols that set up the winning free throws. A team captain, Green is a very smart player that plays within his means. And like his teammates, he'll pass up his own shot in order to give somebody else a better look. Be on the lookout for the pick-and-pop game and pindowns for Raymar Morgan with Green on the point.
Speaking of Morgan, I know that Tom Izzo knows that Morgan is an absolute luxury. After all, it was No. 2 that closed out Michigan State wins with an up-and-under move on UNI's Lucas O'Rear and the winning free throws against Tennessee. Morgan matches up against the tough Veasley, although the Spartan senior does have five inches on his opponent. This must be taken into consideration down the stretch and I trust Izzo more than any coach in the final two minutes of a ball game. He's not afraid to take a risk and more times than not, he'll come out on top in close games.
As far as Kalin Lucas being out, I'm confident in Korie Lucious and feel that he's grown a lot in the past two rounds. Don't forget, Lucious hit two big three-pointers in the Final Four last season that propelled MSU to the title game. Michigan State was ranked #2 in the preseason poll and their ability to rotate interchangeable parts is a direct correlation of those high expectations. Players step in, step up and make plays. Butler's appearance in Indianapolis is great for the game of basketball, but this team just isn't ready yet. Wait til guys like Hayward, Mack and Nored are juniors in 2010-11. They'll be back. Quick note, the last eight programs playing in their first Final Four are 1-7 (only win was George Mason in 2006).
Michigan State has been reminded all season long of their embarrassing title game loss last year at the hands of North Carolina and you cannot underestimate their added motivation to get back to Monday night. They were the underdog at the EXACT same time last season against UConn yet they'll bring the EXACT same tough, physical approach that goes hand-in-hand with the city of Detroit. Sparty is most dangerous when everybody counts them out, so go ahead, keep doubting them -- they'll only bark louder and bark harder.
Posted on 31 Aug 2010 by Sam
Sunday, March 28
**Elite Eight pick originally published March 27, 2010 for Pregame.com
Double-star bet
721 TENN vs 722 MICHST +1.5 - WIN
And so we arrive at yet another Elite Eight for Tom Izzo and the Spartans -- the seventh one in 12 seasons. It just so happens that MSU is 5-1 in this round of the tournament and for all the right reasons. Izzo continues to prove his dominance in March Madness and his ability to rotate interchangeable parts. When Kalin Lucas was knocked out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon, many cappers across the country deemed Michigan State dead weight. They claimed that the green and white did not have a point guard able enough to run the Spartan offense and that Northern Iowa would run circles around them. Ha. Ha. Ha. Yeah right.
Korie Lucious is no Lucas, but as I've been saying along, Lucas wasn't exactly a superstar. Let's face it, the majority of his work was done in the second half and most of those points came at the foul line. Well, look no further than Lucious's game winning three-ball against Maryland in the round of 32 and his stunning spin move shot against Baby Ali Farokhmanesh to conquer the Missouri Valley champions. Yes, Sparty misses the leadership and intuitiveness of Lucas, but they've proved that they can win without him. And let the public continue to believe that MSU can't win without their fallen leader because this bunch is determined to prove otherwise.
Ohio State face planted against Tennessee because of their lack of depth and size down low. The Buckeyes featured a four guard front (Turner, Diebler, Lighty and Buford) leaving the slap-happy Dallas Lauderdale to fend for himself against the Volunteer big men. And when Lauderdale found himself in foul trouble, Thad Matta had to rely on Kyle Madsen (chuckle) to try and stop the much more athletic and physical Brian Williams and Tyler Smith. Not going to cut it. Izzo, however, has the luxury of rotating a plethora of big men including Delvon Roe, up-and-comer Draymond Green and Garrick Sherman, all of whom have shown the discipline in the paint and the tenacity on both sides of the glass. The Vols are not going to be able to ford the interior and pass the ball at will against Michigan State. Izzo's boys are far too strong down low and far too aware to let Tennessee run wild on the low block.
Preparation is going to be the key, and while I love Bruce Pearl and his coaching staff, there is no better coach in the country in my mind than Tom Izzo and no team runs better offensive sets and makes half-court adjustments better than Michigan State. We saw the motivation and the desire in Sparty's eyes after halftime in the Sweet 16 and we'll continue to see more of the same as these two teams play for a bid to Indianapolis. I trust Izzo more than anybody else and I believe he'll implement some sort of zone defense that will force the Vols to shoot over the top -- which is exactly how you beat Tennessee -- make them beat you from the perimeter. Granted, Tennessee is tremendous at crashing the offensive glass, but I'll take my chances knowing full well that the big Spartan trees are experienced enough after months of "war drills" and adept enough to know how to position themselves off the window.
This game will be close, there's no question about it, but in a half-court game and a slower paced contest, I'm siding with Michigan State. They aren't the most talented or the most athletic, but they're the most tournament tested squad and they were in this exact same scenario just last season. And just like they prevailed against the much quicker Louisville in the 2009 dance by slowing the Cardinals down in transition, I expect much more of the same on Sunday. I'm confident that when the final buzzer sounds, Tom Izzo and company will be cutting down the nets in St. Louis and reaching their sixth Final Four in the past 12 years.
Double-star bet
721 TENN vs 722 MICHST +1.5 - WIN
And so we arrive at yet another Elite Eight for Tom Izzo and the Spartans -- the seventh one in 12 seasons. It just so happens that MSU is 5-1 in this round of the tournament and for all the right reasons. Izzo continues to prove his dominance in March Madness and his ability to rotate interchangeable parts. When Kalin Lucas was knocked out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon, many cappers across the country deemed Michigan State dead weight. They claimed that the green and white did not have a point guard able enough to run the Spartan offense and that Northern Iowa would run circles around them. Ha. Ha. Ha. Yeah right.
Korie Lucious is no Lucas, but as I've been saying along, Lucas wasn't exactly a superstar. Let's face it, the majority of his work was done in the second half and most of those points came at the foul line. Well, look no further than Lucious's game winning three-ball against Maryland in the round of 32 and his stunning spin move shot against Baby Ali Farokhmanesh to conquer the Missouri Valley champions. Yes, Sparty misses the leadership and intuitiveness of Lucas, but they've proved that they can win without him. And let the public continue to believe that MSU can't win without their fallen leader because this bunch is determined to prove otherwise.
Ohio State face planted against Tennessee because of their lack of depth and size down low. The Buckeyes featured a four guard front (Turner, Diebler, Lighty and Buford) leaving the slap-happy Dallas Lauderdale to fend for himself against the Volunteer big men. And when Lauderdale found himself in foul trouble, Thad Matta had to rely on Kyle Madsen (chuckle) to try and stop the much more athletic and physical Brian Williams and Tyler Smith. Not going to cut it. Izzo, however, has the luxury of rotating a plethora of big men including Delvon Roe, up-and-comer Draymond Green and Garrick Sherman, all of whom have shown the discipline in the paint and the tenacity on both sides of the glass. The Vols are not going to be able to ford the interior and pass the ball at will against Michigan State. Izzo's boys are far too strong down low and far too aware to let Tennessee run wild on the low block.
Preparation is going to be the key, and while I love Bruce Pearl and his coaching staff, there is no better coach in the country in my mind than Tom Izzo and no team runs better offensive sets and makes half-court adjustments better than Michigan State. We saw the motivation and the desire in Sparty's eyes after halftime in the Sweet 16 and we'll continue to see more of the same as these two teams play for a bid to Indianapolis. I trust Izzo more than anybody else and I believe he'll implement some sort of zone defense that will force the Vols to shoot over the top -- which is exactly how you beat Tennessee -- make them beat you from the perimeter. Granted, Tennessee is tremendous at crashing the offensive glass, but I'll take my chances knowing full well that the big Spartan trees are experienced enough after months of "war drills" and adept enough to know how to position themselves off the window.
This game will be close, there's no question about it, but in a half-court game and a slower paced contest, I'm siding with Michigan State. They aren't the most talented or the most athletic, but they're the most tournament tested squad and they were in this exact same scenario just last season. And just like they prevailed against the much quicker Louisville in the 2009 dance by slowing the Cardinals down in transition, I expect much more of the same on Sunday. I'm confident that when the final buzzer sounds, Tom Izzo and company will be cutting down the nets in St. Louis and reaching their sixth Final Four in the past 12 years.
Posted on 31 Aug 2010 by Sam
Content Management Powered by CuteNews
